Outlook
The momentum is up. SPY would find support around 5SMA(206 to 207). At the same time, there is not much room for upside and we think SPY will close less than 210 on Friday, probably 207 to 208 area.
SPY today
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| SPY 5m |
Another flat day for SPY. The difference between today and yesterday is PPO, which was slightly getting stronger.
CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold
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| $SPX CVI |
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| $SPX STVO |
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| $SPX VTO |
There were very small movements in CVI, STVO, VTO, and all of those indicators suggest the momentum is still UP.
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| $SPX Daily |
This is a simple $SPX daily chart and we can see 50SMA is catching up 200SMA soon. At this moment, 50SMA is increasing $3.37/day while 200SMA is basically flat. If this pace would continue, 50SMA will overpass 200SMA in 7days, or just in two weeks. As many investment textbooks suggest, long term investors would move their sideline cash into stock market, when 50SMA overpasses 200SMA and that would increase the possibility of new all time high.
Well, everyone would think such scenario so the market won't act in such way :) Remember what happened when 50SMA caught up 200SMA last year?
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SPY OI and Big Trades
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| SPY OI 04/22 |
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| SPY DWV 04/22 |
The OI chart shows SPY options are skewed to call side and we don't think SPY would close more than this level on Friday. On the other hand, DWV chart shows PUTs were bought at the bottom. Those put positions would work as support.
so... we think SPY would find support somewhere between 206 to 207 (5SMA), and move forward to 210 but there are layer of resistance levels so we think SPY will close somewhere between 207 to 208 on Friday.
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