2016/06/27 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

The market is digesting the impact of BRexit. In Japan, some critics are saying BRexit is much worse than 2007 financial crisis. I think BRexit is not that bad, but cheaper £ definitely gives US companies less sales from UK region.

At this moment, nobody knows how big BRexit's impact is, therefore we should ask to the market that can magically guess anything.

Right now, S&P500 is oversold in short term so we can expect some rebound here, however, under this uncertain situation, we can't expect enough buyers show up therefore "Sell the blip" would be the right tactics, and SPY 203 level would lure those sellers.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY gapped down again and it showed beautiful positive divergence and suggests short term bottoming. The problem is similar positive divergence was observed last Friday. 

SPY 1h

Above is SPY 1hour chart and it shows us how steep this decline was. Those indicators such as RSI or PPO suggest very short term bottoms is in. The upper side of Raff Channel is coincidentally same level as 0.382 fib and it's reasonable target for near term rebound. If SPY can't get buyers at this level, 203, sellers will show up.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI is -2σ and suggests near term rebound. 

SPY OI 06/30

SPY OI 07/01

SPY OI 07/08

SPY DWV 06/30

SPY DWV 07/01

SPY DWV 07/08

There are two expirations this week and 06/30 had lots of Put selling today while 07/01 had Put buying. There are still ITM puts for 06/30 and we can expect delta hedge selling if SPY can't recover 205 level by Wednesday.

Extra: S&P500 components

Long watch list...DPS

DPS

Short watch list...SPLS and ZION

SPLS

ZION

2016/06/20 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We expect SPY's new high this week. I don't know the result of BRexit vote yet, but we already know the market went too bearish past weeks.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY opened with big gap up, but it couldn't hold that level and puked out 0.382 of gain from Thursday low. It might have been a buy at the close today.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

• CVIは大幅反発。超短期な買われすぎまではまだ余裕あり。
• STVOは続伸。STVOがプラ転すれば短期的モーメンタムは上に。
• VTOはプラス圏で反発。中期的なモーメンタムも上に。
  
  →BRexitというイベントはありますが、S&P500は最高値更新の準備が整いました。

CVI surged today but it still has a room for short-term overbought. STVO is about to turn positive. VTO rebounded at positive level. Those indicators suggests new ATH is right at the corner.

SPY OI 06/24

SPY DWV 06/24

From OI charts, we can read SPY is at the max pain level right now.

Extra: SPY long watch list

AFL, MRO, QRVO, ACN, EMR and LRCX for tomorrow.

2016/06/17 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

I'm not a politic expert and I don't even care if Brits divorce from EU. It is important, however, to predict how the market reacts against the news, and this is where technical analysis is important. IMO, the market is ready to accept the result of Brexit with welcome tone. Yes, I'm bullish here.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY has been rejected at 5SMA level this week, but it had higher low on Friday with positive divergence.

SPY 60m

This is 1h chart of SPY and it shows more evidences that SPY might have bottomed on Thursday at 0.618 fib level. PPO and RSI show clear positive divergence. The spike of OBV suggests somebody bought big on Thursday.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$NYAD and $NYHL show positive divergence against S&P500.

$VXV:$VIX

The ratio of $VXV:$VIX is still flat but its PPO suggests the low was in, which is bullish for stocks.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

STVO and VTO are conflicting so I think it's not a good idea to go long big at here, but the short term  trend is clearly up.

SPY OI 06/24

SPY OI 06/30

SPY DWV 06/24

SPY DWV 06/30

The coming expiration is skewed to put side, which is bullish.

Extra: Watch list for S&P500 composits

GGP
KIM
MJN
SPG
MAC
AEP
GIS
HCN
AES
EQT
MNST
UPS
XOM
Those are expected to continue up trend.

2016/06/04 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

$SPX's VTO(mid term indicator) triggered strong buy signal while short term indicators suggests overbought conditions. We think the market needs some pullbacks here.

SPY today 

SPY 5m

SPY gapped up and any dips were bought. Strong.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$NYHL is at highest level in these years and suggests there would be some pullback soon.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

VTO is approaching to +1σ but it still has some upside room.

SPY DWV 0610

SPY DWV 0617

SPY OI 0610

SPY OI 0617

It has four days before weekly expires and those ITM call sellers may be feeling pain in their ass. If SPY can stay this level today by Thursday, there would be delta hedge buying.