Outlook
We are not perma-bull, but we believe SPY is at or near intermediate bottom. It's obvious FOMC minute tomorrow would give the market some impact, and the dip should be bought unless SPY can't hold 20SMA.
SPY today
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| SPY 5m |
SPY started with gap down under 5SMA, showing some hope with positive divergence, then sold off into the close. Notice the last bar was strong hammer with big volume.
CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold
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| $SPX CVI |
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| $SPX STVO |
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| $SPX VTO |
CVI suggests near term oversold while STVO and VTO show short/medium term strength. Will FOMC minute provide BTFD moment?
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| SPY OI 04/08 |
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| SPY DWV 04/08 |
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| SPY DWV 04/15 |
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| SPY Big Trades 04/15 |
SPY Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volumes
From the OI chart, we can read the max pain for this Friday would be 206.50. Then...somebody bought $337,292 of 0415 206.50C from 15:42:15 to 15:42:28 during sell off. This trader may be betting SPY will close near 206.50 this Friday. We don't disagree with him.
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