2016/05/27 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

SPY had mid-term buy trigger on VTO chart, however, SPY is in overbought condition in short-term. It is expected that SPY would stay at current level until overbought condition is digested.

今日の振り返り

SPY 5m

SPY stayed in range with very light volume.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$NYAD is still in postitive-divergence condition against $SPY. It is expected that SPY would follow $NYAD, which means SPY will have all-time-high.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

VTO recorded buy signal today, which means the market would close higher than currentlevel by mid-June.

SPY OI 06/03

SPY OI 0610

SPY is just over the level of wall of 210Call. There are only four trading days on coming next week, that means we can expect there would be profit taking from those call holders if SPY stays higher than Friday's close level. On the other hand, there are massive put positions under 210 level. We expect SPY would close somewhere around 209.50 on this coming expiration.

Just a reminder or two. There would be futures rolling next month, which we mostly see elevated IV. The peak of IV would occur second week of Wednesday or Thursday when most of ESM6 would get sold.

SPY will pay dividends on after 3rd Thursday close. The dividends would be $1 or so and SPY price will drop suddenly on 3rd Friday open :) Don't blindly follow SPY calls just because you think it is cheap.

2016/05/26 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

SPY would end up flat to slightly lower tomorrow's expiration. While $SPX charts suggest mid-term buy signal, there were massive Put buying today, that might lead market lower early next week. We are going to "BTFD" of course.

SPY Today

SPY 5m

SPY gapped up two days in a row and it was consolidation day today. It looks the market is digesting overbought condition by time, however, the volume is abysmal as some traders went to vacation on this long weekend.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

Cumulative $NYAD is all time high suggesting $SPX would follow.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

It looks like VTO hit the bottom and both of VTO's momentum indicators, ITBM and ITVM, triggered buy signal. We expect longer term investors would jump in the market with their sideway money. On the other hand, STVO exceeded +1σ, suggesting there would be short-term overbought condition.

SPY OI 05/27

SPY OI 06/03

SPY DWV 05/27

SPY DWV 06/03

SPY Option Big Trades 05/27

SPY Option Big Trades 06/03

OI chart shows there is a big resistance level at 210 on next week. We also noticed there were a couple of big trades in this quiet market.

10:32:36 0527 209.00C 10000x$0.87 $877,000.
10:45:12 0603 209.00P 22161x$1.11　$2,459,871

The first one is a big call buying  at breakout level, and we know it rarely works to buy calls at breakout. SPY may close tomorrow at or less 209.

The second one is a massive put buying and we need keep an eye on it. Monday is holiday next week that means we have only 6 trading days for next expiration. This trader may be expecting quick pullback tomorrow or next Tuesday.

2016/05/24 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

If you like Tom DeMark, you would have noticed that SPY has broken TD Supply line today and pending qualified break waiting for gaps up and higher high tomorrow. The target would be ATH level.

Obviously SPY is overbought in short term, however, if SPY can gaps up and keep the gap, another indicators would trigger buy signals which could change investors mind.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY was "Gap 'n Go" modo today. The volume was unimpressive, though.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$NYAD shows some positive divergence against $SPX.

JNK Daily

Notice JNK is breaking out. Wisdom says "when credit goes higher, equities follow".

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI suggests $SPX would pause tomorrow at least. STVO turned positive and suggests short term momentum is positive. VTO is still lagging but clearly it's improving.

SPY OI 05/27

SPY OI 06/03

SPY DWV 05/27

SPY DWV 06/03

SPY options weren't so active today. Some 0527 calls were bought at breakout level but volume wasn't so huge so we don't expect those trades lead another movement in SPY. 

2016/05/20 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We believe that SPY had bottom on last Thursday but we aren't so bullish at this moment becuse bears would try to sell at the brip.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY gapped up at the open and stayed at the gap level. Now SPY sits just above the 5SMA.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

CVI suggests very short term momentum is up and there is still a room before SPY gets near term overbought.

オプション建玉と大口取引

SPY OI 05/27

SPY OI 06/03

SPY DWV 05/27

SPY DWV 06/03

SPY Option Big Trades 05/27

SPY Option Big Trades 06/03

The Open Interest is skewed to Put side and there are strong supports under current level. Unless SPY breaks down at 204, SPY would stay at 205-206 level by Friday.