Outlook
We believe bottoms were in on Thursday and SPY would grind up by monthly option expiration, however, resistance would be heavy. If SPY exceeds 207 by this weekend, it would be a gift.
SPY today
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| SPY 5m |
SPY gaped up higher, then failed at VWAP/5SMA. Since it was Friday, short put holders scrambled for delta hedging. It is encouraging for bulls that SPY didn't break Thursday's low.
CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold
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| $SPX CVI |
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| $SPX STVO |
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| $SPX VTO |
CVI suggests there is no momentum in very short term.
STVO suggests near term oversold.
VTO suggests there are lot of resistance above.
Overall, bulls and bears will try to take control and we would see elevated volatility.
SPY Options
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| SPY OI 04/15 |
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| SPY OI 04/22 |
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| SPY DWV 04/15 |
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| SPY DWV 04/22 |
OI for 04/15 shows
- skewed to put side
- big wall at 200P
- slightly big wass at 205C/205P
Obviously, 205 will be a battleground between bulls and bears and 200 will be a big support, we don't think SPY goes down at this level by Friday, though.
If SPY can't exceed 205 by mid week, SPY will stay somewhere around 204, on the other hand, if SPY can exceed 205, then 207 will be a resistance and SPY will close somewhere around 206 on Friday.
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