Outlook
We are still bullish. SPY may try last week's high (205.23) this coming week, or even higher.
There are two expirations coming this week. One is quarterly(0331) and the other one is weekly(0401). DOL reports non farm payroll data on Friday so IV will be creeping up by Thursday.
SPY today
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| SPY 5m |
SPY gapped down but eventually recovered. I should have had a off day.
CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold
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| $SPX CVI |
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| $SPX STVO |
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| $SPX VTO |
CVI and STVO suggest near term weakness while VTO suggests mid-term strength. Bears may try to take control but dips will be bought.
On 22nd, there was a treader who bought $2.74M of 0331SPY 204/207 Call Spread. Today, there were another big Ratio Call Spread trades at 12:15:37, 12:17:59, and 12:23:31. This is a 202.00C x 15000/204.00C x 2400 spread with debit of $996,000 and we would say this is a bullish position.
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