Outlook
We are still bullish but we can also see the market is getting tired. We expect bears would try the market down but 5SMA will work as strong support.
SPY today
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| SPY 5m |
SPY continued climbing up tomorrow but there was clear negative divergence. Negative divergence doesn't lead the market down, rather it suggests the market is getting fatigue. The 5SMA is still rising and SPY is hovering over its 5SMA, so we don't need to short at this time.
CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold
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| $SPX CVI |
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| $SPX STVO |
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| $SPX VTO |
All of CVI, STVO, and VTO continued to rise. CVI and STVO still have a room for overbought. VTO looks overbought as it's approaching to +2σ, however, it was October 2011 when VTO crossed over +2σ and SPY basically stayed overbought after all.
SPY Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volume
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| SPY OI 03/18 |
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| SPY DWV 03/18 |
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| SPY DWV 03/24 |
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| SPY Options Big Trades 03/18 |
There was a big Call buying just before the close and it looks like someone opened ratio call spread, with long 9500x200.00C and short 19000x202.00C. Unless SPY sinks under 202 tomorrow, this trader is guaranteed to earn $475,000. Cool.
BTW it looks like SPY 0318 205.00C was very active today. Did those buyers know it is ex-dividend tonight? I hope they did.
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