Outlook
Our outlook is same as yesterday.
We expect bears trying to sell at the high while the market is clearly overbought, but the pullback will be very shallow. SPY might undercut 5SMA where buyers would show up.
SPY today
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| SPY 5m |
SPY started gapped down and buyers showed up immediately after the open then took control for new high. As we expected, 205 worked as strong resistance so far.
CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold
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| $SPX CVI |
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| $SPX STVO |
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| $SPX VTO |
All of CVI, STVO, and VTO suggests strong uptrend, overbought condition, and near term consolidation.
SPY Option OI and Dollar Weighted Volume
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| SPY OI 03/24 |
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| SPY DWV 03/24 |
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| SPY DWV 03/31 |
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| SPY Big Trades 03/31 |
There still exists SPY 205/206 walls which work as resistance and it was really quiet session for 03/24 options. There was only one big trade we would like to focus on today. Somebody bought 20000x204/207 Call Spread for 03/31 expiration. It costed $2,740,000 and max profit would be $3,260,000 if SPY closes more than 207 on 03/31. The max loss is of course $2,740,000 if SPY closes less than 204 so we would say this is pretty much bullish trade.
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