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Jan 10, 2017

SPY Option Market Analysis 20170110

Wrap up

OptionM8 app is not a price prediction tool, but user can predict a price reaction from the option market itself. We had a typical example in SPY options today.


SPY OI 20170111

Yesterday, SPY closed at 226.46. You can see 227C was net long from the 3rd row of the charts. SPY popped up this morning and 227C went to ITM.

SPY 20170111 227C Daily
From the daily chart, 227C closed below VWAP 0.60 level yesterday, which means average long holders were under water, therefore, it would be rational to expect those long holders would close the position at VWAP level, 0.60.

SPY 20170111 227C 5min
The intraday chart shows 227C reversed at 0.60 level.

SPY 29179111 227P 5min
Of course 227P had a good swing trade opportunity today.

You can see this trading strategy on our short introduction video.

Trade ideas for tomorrow

SPY OI 20170111
SPY didn't change much today, but OI did. Actually 226P was bought relatively big today.
SPY 29170111 226P
Most of those 226P was bought today at 0.2 level, ant VWAP is around 0.4.  Those 226P holders may hold the position even after the price exceeds VWAP, because puts are too cheap now. Do you set stop-sell for lottery ticket? I don't.

I'm slightly bearish here.

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