2016/06/03 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We would like to stick with seasonal pattern. SPY tends to get volatile while futures traders roll over their positions and most of the roll over happens this coming week and bottoms would be in Thursday or Friday, followed by grinding up towards monthly expiration. While we expect higher volatility, we won't see sharp sell off as uptrend is still intact. SPY may close the gaps (208 then 205.50) but buyers will show up before those levels.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY gapped down by the weak NFP data the squeezed up. Note 5SMA is flattering and it suggests buying exhaustion is near.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$NYAD is still advancing and it strongly suggests we will see new all time high on $SPX or other indexes, however, $NYHL is near +2σ where we have seen some consolidations, if not pullbacks.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI shows no momentum in very short term. STVO and VTO show conflicted signals and we think consolidation continues this coming week and dips would get bought.

SPY OI 06/10

SPY OI 06/17

SPY DWV 06/10

SPY DWV 06/17

SPY Option Big Trades 06/10

SPY Option Big Trades 06/17

From DWV charts we can see some PUTs buying at the high. While those trades were not massive, we should keep eyes on those counter trend bets.