Outlook
Our analysis, SPY would exceed or get closed to 212 level by Friday, is getting unrealistic, however, we believe SPY was at or near intermediate bottom today, and SPY will close at max pain (209.50) on Friday.
Wrap up
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| SPY 5m |
SPY gapped down this morning and was unable to close the gap.
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| $NYAD |
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| $NYHL |
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| SPY:RSP |
It was pretty much strong selling today. Notice $NYAD is still holding breakout level, which encourages bullish scenario.
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| $SPX CVI |
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| $SPX STVO |
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| $SPX VTO |
CVI declined to -1σ level and $SPX is imminent for rebound. STVO is neutral. VTO is bit bearish.
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| SPY OI 05/06 |
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| SPY OI 05/13 |
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| SPY DWV 05/06 |
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| SPY Bull/Bear Ratio 0506 |
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| SPY DWV 05/13 |
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| SPY Option Big Trades 05/06 |
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| SPY Option Big Trades 05/13 |
From those option charts, we can observe following facts:
- There is a wall of puts at 205 this Friday.
- The max pain for this expiration is 209.50
- Bull/bear ratio for this expiration is heavily skewed to bearish side.
- 05/13 puts were massively sold today.
- 10:29:36 0513 205.00P 15000x1.59 $2,385,000 was the biggest trade.
Every charts suggest one more leg down, however, those option charts say opposite. The wall of 205P would act as support and suggests SPY will rise to max pain level at least.
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