2016/04/22 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

SPY may exceed ATH again this week but we believe SPY can't stay over 210 on Friday close. Support would be 207 area.

Wrap up

SPY 5m

SPY opened at 209, then sold off to 208, and finally pinned at 208.98. Congrats for call sellers over 209. Now SPY sits under its 5SMA so bears could have a chance or two.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

While SPY stayed flat, internal was pretty good. The SPY:RSP ratio suggests small caps had strength while big caps were sold for pinning.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

VTO and $SPX show negative divergence while CVI and STVO show short term strength. Overall, those indicators suggest consolidation or very shallow pullback.

SPY OI 04/29

SPY OI 05/06

SPY DWV 04/29

SPY DWV 05/06

SPY Option Big Trades 04/29

SPY Option Big Trades 05/06

Open interests are skewed to call side and there are big spikes at 210 and 215. Those levels would act as strong resistances.

2016/04/21 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

SPY had rejection at 210+ area so we will see some back and fill until bears accumulate enough short positions for squeezing.

SPY Wrap Up 

SPY 5m

SPY had rejection at new ATH yesterday and sold off to 5SMA area where SPY had no rebound, which means acceptance.

$NYAD

$NYHL

SPY:RSP

$NYAD declined today but advanced/decline ratio was 1095/1899, which suggests sector rotation.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

All of CVI, STVO and VTO declined today and those indicators suggest near term consolidation. The best scenario would be one more decline on VTO to clear mid-term overbought condition, but we know the market won't move as our wish :)

SPY OI 04/22

There are plenty of puts under current SPY level so we won't see big decline tomorrow. 

SPY OI 04/29

SPY OI 05/06

SPY options are skewed to call side next two weeks so we don't expect quick rebound at this moment.

SPY DWV 04/22

SPY DWV 04/29

SPY DWV 05/06

SPY Option Big Trades 04/22

SPY Option Big Trades  04/29

SPY Option Big Trades 05/06

There is still the wall of 210Calls tomorrow while SPY had rejection at 210+ level.  At the same time bears loaded up plenty of puts under 209 level.  Those information suggests SPY would strike 209 area at tomorrow expiration, which is higher than our primary prediction, 207-208 level.

2016/04/20 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We still expect near term consolidation, if not a shallow pullback. The target price for SPY is 207-208 for this weekly expiration.

SPY Wrap Up

SPY 5m

Another new ATH today. The stanpede continues.

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

All of CVI, STVO, and VTO showed small pullback today. S&P500 may be digesting overbought condition while it is grinding up.

SPY OI 04/22

The wall of 210 is still there for this week. 

SPY OI 04/29

Next week is more bullish. Look at those walls.

SPY OI 05/06

SPY DWV 04/22

There were some 210C buying in last minutes. Those are "weak" hands so expect they would close the position soon unless SPY runs up really strong.

SPY DWV 04/29

SPY DWV 05/06

I think the biggest story today is those call buyers for 05/06.

SPY Option Big Trades 04/22

SPY Option Big Trades 04/29

SPY Option Big Trades 05/06

15:26:02 208.00C x 15000 = $5,565,000.
15:27:05 212.00C x 15000 = $1,845,000.

Those are pretty much big positions and I would like to stick with them. SPY will have one more leg up in next two weeks.

2016/04/19 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

SPY is still on uptrend but it looks like 210 is a major resistance and many indicators suggest exhaustion. We still believe SPY would close 207-208 level on Friday.

Wrap Up

SPY 5m

SPY OI

SPY DWV 04/22

SPY DWV 04/29

SPY Option Big Trades 04/11

SPY recorded new ATH today but as we mentioned yesterday, it couldn't hold 210 level. Although we saw heavy call selling today, there was no major 210C selling so the OI structure would be same, which means 210 is still major resistance level for SPY.

2016/04/18 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

SPY closed at 209.24, which is just $0.50 away from all time high, and there is no reason SPY can't exceed ATH tomorrow. At the same time, SPY is near exhaustion level and we expect consolidation or shallow pullback soon.

SPY today

SPY 5m

Futures gapped down on Sunday globex after OPEC screwed up themselves. SPY started lower on Monday premarket then rebounded at 5SMA and bears scrambled to cover.

Bulls will try to trigger stops above ATH but this scenario is too obvious so I guess the market will show another story that we can't imagine for now.

CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI and STVO suggests S&P500 is at/near overbought level in short term.
VTO suggests S&P500 still has upside room in medium term.

SPY Options OI and Big Trades

SPY OI

SPY DWM 04/22

SPY DWV 04/29

SPY Big Trades 04/22

SPY Big Trades 04/29

The wall of 210Call would work as a big resistance. Unless new ATH price is accepted (increased volume), those call holders would close the position for profit taking and the first breakout will be short lived.

By the way, we found this strange trade:

12:51:54 0422 202.50P 10000x0.07

This trader opened 10000 of far OTM puts when SPY was going higher. Does he/she know something we don't know?