2016/04/07 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We believe bottoms were in for SPY today, and SPY will grind up again into monthly expiration.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY gaped down this morning and went to south with positive divergence, and never exceeded VWAP.

CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI suggests $SPX is oversold in very short term, again.

SPY Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volumes

SPY OI 04/08

SPY OI 04/15

SPY DWV 04/08

SPY DWV 04/15

SPY Big Trades 04/18

SPY Big Trades 04/15

The max pain for this Friday is still 206.50, and most of big trades were put selling, which is bullish.

Open interests for monthly expiration shows strong skew towards put side, which is bullish as well.

2016/04/06 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We think SPY will stay current level by Friday, unless it gaps up big tomorrow.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY opened flat this morning. Bears tried to prove stop sell level but failed as market was already in oversold condition in short term, and buyers took control to close the gap. SPY now sits above 5SMA level, which is bullish.

CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI and STVO suggests near term consolidation.

SPY Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volumes

SPY OI 04/08

SPY OI 04/15

SPY DWV 04/08

SPY DWV 0415

SPY Big Trades 04/18

SPY Big Trades 04/15

From 0408 OI, we can read there is strong resistance at 207. SPY may exceed 207 tomorrow or Friday, but won't stay long at this level because those call holders will close their position for profit taking. Unless SPY gaps up big tomorrow or Friday, we think SPY will close between 206.50 and 207.00 on Friday.

For the next week, both OI and DWV charts look bullish so far.

2016/04/05 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We are not perma-bull, but we believe SPY is at or near intermediate bottom. It's obvious FOMC minute tomorrow would give the market some impact, and the dip should be bought unless SPY can't hold 20SMA.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY started with gap down under 5SMA, showing some hope with positive divergence, then sold off into the close. Notice the last bar was strong hammer with big volume.

CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI suggests near term oversold while STVO and VTO show short/medium term strength. Will FOMC minute provide BTFD moment?

SPY OI 04/08

SPY DWV 04/08

SPY DWV 04/15

SPY Big Trades 04/15

SPY Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volumes

From the OI chart, we can read the max pain for this Friday would be 206.50. Then...somebody bought $337,292 of 0415 206.50C from 15:42:15 to 15:42:28 during sell off. This trader may be  betting SPY will close near 206.50 this Friday. We don't disagree with him.

2016/04/04 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

SPY may undercut its 5SMA a couple of times, then rebound for Friday's high.

SPY today

SPY had hangover day but not puking so much. Rising 5SMA line is approaching below.

CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI suggests very short term consolidation while STVO suggests more upside in near future. VTO suggests topping process in progress, however, market can stay overbought under such strong environment.

SPY Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volume

SPY OI

SPY DWV 04/08

SPY DWV 04/15

SPY Big Trades 04/08

SPY Big Trades 04/15

Option market was much active today but there was no remarkable trade. The monthly options were slightly skewed to bear side.

2016/04/01 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

We are still bullish, however, given the lowered IV, the upside would be limited. SPY is clearly overbought and some indicators suggest pullback would be due. That doesn't mean we should sell short at here. We expect dips would be bought, like the open at last Friday. 5SMA would work strong support.

While the dip would be bought, the upper side would be limited as well. SPY might exceed 208 or further by mid of this week, where profit taking is expected.

SPY today

SPY 5m

SPY got selling off on pre-market after NFP report, then bought hard after open. Obviously, 5SMA worked as strong support.

CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI and STVO suggest more upside in short term.
Waning VTO suggests intermediate top is coming in near future, maybe days, probably a couple of weeks.

SPY Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volume

SPY OI 04/08 

SPY DWV 0408

SPY DWV 0415

SPY Big Trades 04/08

SPY DWV 04/15

Option market was really thin this week. The biggest single SPY option trade was 0408 207.50C on March 30th and the DWV was $765,000. There was no single $1M trade this week. Since the OI volume is not so big, we can't expect much from those OI/DWV information next week.

Anyways, let's see the OI chart. There are two call spikes on 207 and 209, while many puts are bought under 204, so 204 would work as support while 208 would work as resistance.

On the DWV chart, there were relatively big call buyers before market close, and we know it's not a good idea to buy calls at breakout level. SPY may exceed 208 next week but it will be short lived.

Those option charts were taken from our app Option M8 and you can download it free from Google App Store or Apple iTunes Store.

2016/03/31 SPY Options Wrap Up

Outlook

NFP report will give the market good excuse to sell, but the dip would be limited and there are strong supports at gap(205)/5SMA(204.5).

SPY today

SPY 5m

Weak longs were forced to cut the position before NFP reports.

CVI/STVO/VTO and trends/overbought/oversold

$SPX CVI

$SPX STVO

$SPX VTO

CVI and STVO suggests more upside room for short term.

SPI Options OI and Dollar Weighted Volume

SPY OI 04/01

SPY OI 04/08

SPY DWV 04/01

SPY DWV 04/08

SPY Options Big Trades 04/08

SPY Options are skewed to put side, which means bullish tomorrow. Unless NFP is really bad, SPY will be bought at the dip. Max pain is 204.50 so SPY may close at this level tomorrow.

Congrats for those traders who opened Bull Call Spread on 03/22 and Ratio Call Spread on 03/24.